It’s a vigorous debate taking place right now among scientists around the world, with far-reaching implications for extreme weather and costly disasters: Is climate change making El Niño more intense.
El Niño, the natural phenomenon that occurs every few years and pushes up global temperatures, has just begun and is expected to continue through 2027. Scientists say this latest version is likely to be especially potent and could smash records.
As greenhouse gasses heat the planet, El Niño events over the past few decades have been comparatively strong. The run of powerful El Niños since the 1980s stands out when measured against the past 600 years. That’s led some scientists to suggest that climate change is supercharging El Niño.
Others say there is no clear evidence to support that theory. “It’s highly contested, because it’s such an important question to get right,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist and the director of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society.
It’s a mystery that might not become clearer until years into the future, as more data piles up.
The question is crucial, because El Niños disrupt weather patterns globally, often in devastating ways — driving temperatures higher, increasing the likelihood of drought in some places and flooding in others.
The events are essentially ocean anomalies, and if climate change makes these anomalies larger in size, that means more chaos and damage. We are having trouble retrieving the article content. Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
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